Statistics Canada announced on Tuesday (30th) that Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.5% month-on-month in April, the fastest growth rate since July 2025, better than the 0.4% previously estimated by Statistics Canada, marking the economy regaining growth momentum after a mild contraction in the first quarter.
The oil and gas extraction sector performed strongly in April, mainly benefiting from a rebound in synthetic crude oil production, after unplanned maintenance hampered growth at the beginning of the year. Manufacturing, construction, and transportation and warehousing industries also generally recorded growth, and the public sector also improved, with construction rising 0.7% month-on-month, the first rebound in five months.
The real estate brokerage and agency industry also recorded its first growth since August 2025 due to the improved housing market in the Greater Toronto Area. Preliminary estimates from the Statistics Bureau indicate that growth in May will slow to 0.1%, mainly driven by the financial, insurance, real estate, and leasing sectors. GDP briefly contracted slightly in the first quarter of this year, and the two consecutive quarters of contraction initially sparked recession speculation; however, most economists believe it is too early to say. The conflict in Iran has driven up oil prices and led to a surge in refined oil exports.
Energy statistics released by the Bureau of Statistics on the same day showed that refined petroleum exports surged 69.7% year-on-year, driven by the war in Iran that pushed up global oil prices. Crude oil and equivalent product output rose 4.2% year-on-year in April, marking the 11th consecutive month of year-on-year growth, with oil sands extraction contributing the most. Offshore production in Newfoundland and Labrador also reached a new high since March 2020.
Crude oil pipeline exports to the United States rose 8.8% year-on-year, while exports to Asia and Europe surged by 46.6%. The Bureau of Statistics indicated that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are hindering local crude oil supplies.