According to preliminary population figures for the third quarter of 2025 (July 1 to October 1), released by Statistics Canada on December 17, Canada’s population will experience its largest decline compared to any third quarter since 1971, when the agency began compiling comparable statistics.
As of October 1, Canada’s population was estimated at 41,575,585, a decrease of approximately 76,068 people (0.2%) in the third quarter. This was due to a sharp decline in non-permanent residents, which decreased by 176,479 people. As of July 1, there were 3,024,216 non-permanent residents (7.3%), but as of October 1, there were 2,847,737 non-permanent residents (6.8%).
By region, Ontario had the largest decrease of 107,280 cases, followed by British Columbia (BC) with 26,242 cases, Quebec with 15,989 cases, and Alberta with 10,605 cases. The main breakdown of the decline in non-permanent residents is international students (student visa only) at 73,682, work and study permit holders at 67,616, and work permit only at 35,231.
The decline was most notable in Ontario, where there are many international students, with a 47,511 decrease, and in British Columbia, with a 14,291 decrease. In the third quarter, 339,505 temporary permits expired, while only 163,026 new permits were issued. A major factor in the population decline is the Canadian government’s immigration policy.
Under the Justin Trudeau administration, the Canadian government has shifted to a policy of restricting the acceptance of non-permanent residents (international students, temporary workers, and refugee applicants) from 2024 onwards. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who took office in the spring of 2025, has also stated that he will “keep immigration under control.”
In his November budget proposal, he announced that the number of non-permanent residents accepted would be increased to 385,000 in 2026, and 370,000 for each of the following two years. In addition to economic reasons such as rising house prices and rents, strained public services such as healthcare and education, and rising youth unemployment, the decline also reflects the will of the people, with support for accepting immigrants at its lowest level in 30 years.
On the other hand, the number of permanent residents accepted was 102,867, the same as in previous years, and this situation is expected to continue in the future.