Toronto voters appear to favour a Liberal government led by Mark Carney in the next general election.
According to a recent poll by polling agency Leger, the Liberal Party has 50% support in Toronto, far ahead of the Conservative Party (31%) and the New Democratic Party (NDP, 14%).This is bad news for Conservative Leader Pierre Poirierve, and experts analyse that the votes in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area (905 District) will be key variables in determining the general election results.
According to the results of the poll, half of Toronto residents support the Liberal Party, and 47% of respondents said that Carney is a suitable prime minister, nearly double that of Poirierve (24%). In particular, he is receiving overwhelming support from female voters (52%), those aged 33-54 (over 50%), and those aged 55 and over (over 50%). On the other hand, the Conservative Party was relatively strong among men, but even among them, the gap in support with the Liberals was 11 percentage points.
In particular, the Conservative Party lost some support in Toronto to not only the Liberals but also the People’s Party (PPC) led by Maxime Bernier. Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, emphasized the importance of the Toronto vote, saying, “If the 905 regions including Toronto lean toward the Liberals, the Liberals will win the general election, and if the Conservatives take control, a Conservative government will be established.”
Meanwhile, in national opinion polls, the Liberals and Conservatives are locked in a close race, and Canada-U.S. relations and Donald Trump’s tariff threats have emerged as major issues. Forty percent of respondents expected Carney to be the best at solving this problem, and 60% of Ontario voters evaluated Ontario Premier Doug Ford as managing relations with the U.S. well.
Experts advise that local-focused promises such as solving the housing shortage, cost of living burden, and building high-speed rail will be important to attract Toronto voters.
The survey was conducted online from March 10 to 13, and the data from 201 respondents were weighted by gender, age, region, and education level. The margin of error is ±6.91 percentage points.