The economy can be said to be the issue that Canadians care about most. Statistics Canada released the latest data today, showing that the national annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in September, higher than the market expectation of 2.2%, mainly due to rising food prices and a narrower decline in gasoline prices.
This inflation report is also the last major data before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision meeting on October 29. National price pressures have not yet fully eased, and expectations of a rate cut at the end of this month are now wavering. Prices are rising again. Canada is poised to sign a tariff agreement with the US, and some provinces have given up resistance.
Data shows that Canadian consumers’ food spending in September increased by 4% compared with the same period last year, significantly higher than the overall inflation rate, with the most obvious price increases for fresh vegetables and sugary foods. Grocery prices in Canada have been on a continuous upward trend since April, especially due to shortages of fresh and frozen beef, coffee, and other foods. In fact, grocery shopping is a major expense in the household budget. People often feel the soaring prices most directly at the supermarket checkout.
“Food inflation not only affects consumer confidence, but also directly weakens the purchasing power of middle- and low-income families.”
Excluding grocery prices, rental prices rose 4.8% year-over-year, a slight rebound from the previous month. Although provincial governments have introduced policies to limit rent increases and increase housing supply, the imbalance between supply and demand remains serious, and the average rent in major Canadian cities has increased for 18 consecutive months.
“With the central bank maintaining high interest rates, mortgage costs remain high, further driving up rental demand,” said Jonathan, a Toronto real estate analyst. “Housing issues are becoming a structural driver of inflation.”
Compared with the same period last year, national gasoline prices fell by 4.1% in September, but the rate of decline slowed significantly.
The market had generally expected the central bank to announce further rate cuts at the end of this month to cope with weak economic growth and the job market, but after the inflation data was released, investors became cautious.
BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter said that although growth has slowed, inflation remains sticky, and the central bank may choose to stand still for now. Two of the three core inflation indicators closely watched by the central bank remain above 3%, exceeding the target range of 1%–3%.
Analysts believe this suggests that even though inflation is near the target level, underlying price pressures remain stubborn. “If monetary policy is relaxed too early, inflation could rebound; but if interest rates remain high too long, it could further suppress economic activity and employment. The central bank is at the most difficult crossroads, and any decision carries risks.”
Over the past year, Canada’s inflation has fallen significantly from a peak of 8.1% in 2022, but prices are still above pre-pandemic levels. Canadians feel the rising cost of living more acutely than the data suggests. Regardless of the rate decision, grocery and rent bills are still increasing. Behind the rise in inflation is also the impact of tariff policies. Canada, which has endured multiple rounds of US-imposed tariffs, is now reaching its limit.
Two days ago, BC Governor David Ingram, who had stood firm with Ontario against the US, announced a shift in position.
After the US imposed additional tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, severely impacting BC’s industry, Ingram said he is ready to abandon new retaliatory measures: “We believe that going it alone is not the best way forward.”
Although there are no new retaliatory tariffs planned, BC’s existing countermeasures will continue.
Just this morning, Carney said that Canada is expected to reach a new ‘partial tariff agreement’ with the US before the APEC summit at the end of this month.
Last week, Carney led ministers to the White House to discuss tariffs but returned without a deal. However, he left several ministers behind to continue negotiations and heard positive news only today. Canada has learned its lesson when dealing with unpredictable moves from the US administration. Carney cautioned that even if a deal is reached, it won’t be a full tariff reduction, but rather targeted at key industries like steel and aluminium.
“We are in ongoing dialogue with the US, but I won’t overstate our stance. Negotiations are still ongoing, and we remain cautious.”
Previously, Carney stated that a complete elimination of tariffs is almost impossible. Canada now seeks sector-specific exemptions or lower rates. The five major industries involved in talks are steel, aluminium, copper, automobiles, and timber—all critical to trade and employment in Canada.
Trade Minister Dominic, who participated in negotiations, also urged caution: “We still have a lot of work to do, and my goal is to keep working until we reach an agreement that works for Canadian workers.”
Economists point out that if substantial progress is made before year-end, it could help stabilize market expectations and boost Canadian business confidence.